ICG

After Libya’s Oil Grab, Compromise Could Lead to a Restart of Exports

The seizure of Libya’s main pre-2013 oil terminals by an opposition force is a blow to the authority of Libya’s fledgling UN-backed Presidency Council. Claudia Gazzini But smart compromises might help restart the flow of oil, as Crisis Group’s Senior Libya analyst Claudia Gazzini explains in this Q… Source: After Libya’s Oil Grab, Compromise Could Lead to a Restart of Exports | International Crisis Group Read More »

The Philippines’ Misguided Plan to Stop South China Sea Tensions

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Cooperating on oil won’t work – but fishing might. Former Philippine president Fidel Ramos was in Hong Kong earlier this month to meet his “old friends” in hopes of breaking ice with Beijing. In a statement issued Thursday, Ramos and his interlocutors, including prominent Chinese diplomat Fu Ying, said they discussed the… Source: The Philippines’ Misguided Plan to Stop South China Sea Tensions | International Crisis Group Read More »

Fight or Flight: The Desperate Plight of Iraq’s “Generation 2000”

Iraqi youth who came of age during the post-2003 turmoil share a sense of hopelessness and disempowerment. Across the political spectrum, they feel trapped: join a protest movement or militia, or emigrate. Even amid the severe challenges the government and its partners face, this generation must be prioritised, lest Iraq’s most important resource… Source: Fight or Flight: The Desperate Plight of Iraq’s “Generation 2000” | International Crisis Group Read More »

Museveni’s Post-election Politics: Keeping a Lid on Uganda’s Opposition

Six months after its February general election the political atmosphere in Uganda is unsettled, securitised and paranoid. Opposition leaders and some supporters – seeking to rally a popular movement against the regime – are regularly harassed, accused of treason and temporarily detained. The ruling elite is clearly concerned about the opposition’s growing support. Its hard-fisted approach to the problem, alongside a… Source: Museveni’s Post-election Politics: Keeping a Lid on Uganda’s Opposition | International Crisis Group Read More »

Myanmar’s New Government: Finding Its Feet?

The first four months of Myanmar’s democratic government have set a positive tone. But de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi needs to find ways to bring peace with ethnic insurgents closer, rebalance relations with China, and overcome deeply ingrained problems in Rakhine State… Source: Myanmar’s New Government: Finding Its Feet? | International Crisis Group Read More »

Easy Prey: Criminal Violence and Central American Migration

Massive deportations from Mexico and the U.S. have not stopped Central Americans fleeing endemic poverty and epidemic violence. Erecting more barriers and forcing migrants and refugees underground deepens the humanitarian crisis – and strengthens the illegal networks turning much of Central America into a criminal battleground… Source: Easy Prey: Criminal Violence and Central American Migration | International Crisis Group Read More »

The Eurasian Economic Union: Power, Politics and Trade

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Since its creation in 2015, the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) has kept only a few of its promises. Its limited economic success cannot mask the many tensions between Russia and its neighbours. Much of the EEU’s future success will depend on its members’ will to shift away from geopolitics and focus on international cooperation, governance, social welfare and migration… Source: The Eurasian Economic Union: Power, Politics and Trade – International Crisis Group Read More »

Kenya’s Coast: Devolution Disappointed

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Six new coastal counties created by Kenya’s 2010 constitution have replicated the closely-held patronage politics of the former Coast province, adding to inefficiencies, costs and mutual suspicions. To maximise the potential of devolution – and prevent militants like Al-Shabaab exploiting popular disappointment – Nairobi and the new counties need to become more cooperative, open to dialogue, and inclusive, especially toward marginalised youth… Source: Kenya’s Coast: Devolution Disappointed – International Crisis Group Read More »

East China Sea: Preventing Clashes from Becoming Crises

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Dangerous aerial and naval encounters are rising as China and Japan spar over disputed islands in the East China Sea. A promising reconciliation process has floundered. To prevent an accident tipping the dispute into open hostility, both sides urgently need a credible crisis management protocol to insulate any negotiations from their broader rivalry… Source: East China Sea: Preventing Clashes from Becoming Crises – International Crisis Group Read More »

Venezuela: Edge of the Precipice

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Venezuela is in full-fledged crisis: food and medicine are scarce, violent crime is surging, and the government is blocking democratic ways forward. The international community and the Organization of American States should press for political dialogue, the opening of legal paths to a presidential recall referendum in 2016, and permission for humanitarian aid to enter the country… Source: Venezuela: Edge of the Precipice – International Crisis Group Read More »

Agreements on the End of the Conflict and the Referendum Bring Peace in Colombia Closer

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The signing in Havana today of agreements on the “end of the conflict” and the referendum mechanism for the Colombian population to approve the final peace deal provides the strongest assurance yet that the 52-year armed conflict between the government and the country’s largest guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), is finally coming to an end… Source: Agreements on the End of the Conflict and the Referendum Bring Peace in Colombia Closer – International Crisis Group Read More »

Buhari’s Nigeria: Boko Haram Off Balance, but Other Troubles Surge

The peaceful election in March 2015 of President Muhammadu Buhari, a former army general, raised hopes that some of Nigeria’s most pressing security problems could soon be tamed. One year later, the new government has struck at the Islamist Boko Haram insurgency. But Nigeria is sliding deeper into other difficulties. Senior Nigeria Analyst Nnamdi Obasi looks at the main challenges… Source: Buhari’s Nigeria: Boko Haram Off Balance, but Other Troubles Surge | Crisis Group Read More »

Pakistan’s Jihadist Heartland: Southern Punjab

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Once-tolerant southern Punjab has become a base for jihadist groups. Socio-economic grievances, political alienation and poor education provide a near endless source of recruits. To reverse the tide, the government must end a climate of impunity, block hate speech, improve rule of law, and refocus counter-terrorist action to target all jihadist groups… Source: Pakistan’s Jihadist Heartland: Southern Punjab – International Crisis Group Read More »

South Sudan’s South: Conflict in the Equatorias

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The 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan reached a milestone with the formation of a transitional government in Juba in April. Yet fault lines like those in the Equatorias remain outstanding. A committed, inclusive political response is vital to stop low-level conflicts continuing indefinitely… Source: South Sudan’s South: Conflict in the Equatorias – International Crisis Group Read More »

Can the Kuwait peace talks break Yemen’s deadlock?

Since fighting broke out in March last year, Yemen’s war has taken a devastating toll on this poorest country on the Arabian Peninsula. The conflict between the insurgent Huthi movement on the one side and the government of President Abed-Rabbo Mansour Hadi, supported by a Saudi-led international coalition on the other side, has cost the lives of… Source: Can the Kuwait peace talks break Yemen’s deadlock? | Crisis Group Read More »

Implementing Peace and Security Architecture (III): West Africa

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The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has a formidable record in its efforts to promote peace in a particularly turbulent region. Still, reform is essential to give the organisation new impetus, and is ever more urgent as insecurity worsens throughout the Sahel and Lake Chad regions… Source: Implementing Peace and Security Architecture (III): West Africa – International Crisis Group Read More »