ICG

Time to Repeal U.S. Sanctions on Sudan?

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The clock is ticking for President Trump who must decide by 12 July whether to lift decades-long U.S. sanctions on Sudan. ICG The failure of economic penalties to alter Khartoum’s behaviour so far means Washington should repeal some sanctions and continue a process of conditional engagement. I. Overview Decision time is fast approaching for U.S. policy toward Sudan. By 12 July 2017, the Trump administration must determine whether to permanently lift the economic and trade sanctions its… Time to Repeal… Read More »

A Misguided Cuba Roll-back

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President Trump’s new measures against Cuba preserve diplomatic relations and the right to most U.S. trade and group travel. Ivan Briscoe ICG But aggressive U.S. atmospherics risk hardening Cuba’s domestic politics and making it harder for Havana to play its mediating role in regional crises and conflicts. President Donald Trump’s 16 June announcement that his administration will partially reverse efforts to restore diplomatic ties and normalise relations with Cuba represents a… A Misguided Cuba… Read More »

Power without the People: Averting Venezuela’s Breakdown

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Violence is escalating in Venezuela, killing 70 people in over two months of ever-angrier popular protests against a government that is abandoning representative democracy. ICG Regional states should avert a humanitarian catastrophe by pressuring the Maduro regime to withdraw plans to elect a phony constituent assembly on 30 July. I. Overview Venezuela is in turmoil after more than two months of almost daily mass… Power without the… Read More »

Mexico’s Worsening War without a Name

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The “war on drugs” has morphed into a new rash of killings in Mexico. Froylán Enciso ICG The deadly violence of increasingly well-organised, business-minded criminal groups risks being aggravated by government inaction, corruption and bombastic U.S. rhetoric – exactly what caused the problem in the first place. Murder rates in Mexico have hit a… Mexico’s Worsening War… Read More »

Traversing the Tribal Patchwork of Libya’s South West

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Our Senior Analyst Claudia Gazzini travels to southern Libya and finds neglect, smugglers, a gold rush, and simmering tensions among a patchwork of ethnic, tribal and militia actors on the edge of the Sahara… Claudia Gazzini ICG She also discovers much longing for a united, well-governed Libya. SEBHA, Libya – To understand the full extent of the impact of the civil war that has fractured the rest of the country into warring fiefdoms, it is… Traversing the Tribal… Read More »

Iran Unites as Tehran Struck by Middle East’s Proxy Wars

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The 7 June attacks in Tehran struck at the symbolic heart of Iran’s revolutionary republic. In this Q&A, Ali Vaez, Senior Analyst for Iran, says the outrages show how the region’s proxy wars are now reaching far beyond the… Ali Vaez ICG How unusual are these attacks for Iran? If this indeed was, as it claimed, an attack by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), it would constitute the first time the organisation has been able to strike ... Read More »

Nagorno-Karabakh’s Gathering War Clouds

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Armenia and Azerbaijan are once again on collision course along increasingly active front lines in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. ICG Mediators Russia, France and the U.S., should pressure Yerevan and Baku to tone down inflammatory rhetoric, agree to talks and take steps towards… Executive Summary A year after Nagorno-Karabakh’s April 2016 violent flare-up, Armenia and… Nagorno-Karabakh’s Gathering… Read More »

Kenya’s Rift Valley: Old Wounds, Devolution’s New Anxieties

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While the chance is small that August 2017 elections ignite a major conflict, county governorship races could well trigger inter-ethnic clashes in the Rift Valley, Kenya’s populous economic heart. ICG The government should train police in non-violent methods that de-escalate crises, and restart grassroots peacebuilding initiatives. Executive Summary The Rift Valley is the crucible of Kenya’s intercommunal conflicts and… Kenya’s Rift Valley… Read More »

Kenya’s Rift Valley: Old Wounds, Devolution’s New Anxieties

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While the chance is small that August 2017 elections ignite a major conflict, county governorship races could well trigger inter-ethnic clashes in the… ICG The government should train police in non-violent methods that de-escalate crises, and restart grassroots peacebuilding initiatives… Executive Summary The Rift Valley is the crucible of Kenya’s intercommunal conflicts and… Kenya’s Rift Valley… Read More »

As Trump Alights in Israel, Palestinians are Descending into Darkness

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President Trump plans a 22-23 May visit to Israel and Palestine in pursuit of the “ultimate deal”. Nathan Thrall ICG But behind the scenes, rising tensions between Palestinian factions may be drawing Gaza and Israel closer to a new war. President Donald Trump makes a 26-hour visit to Israel on 22 May to discuss the “ultimate deal” — a peace agreement between Israelis and Palestinians — with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in… As Trump Alights… Read More »

Instruments of Pain (IV): The Food Crisis in North East Nigeria

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Five million people are hit by the humanitarian fallout of the Boko Haram insurgency. ICG Beyond ending the war, this briefing, the last of four examining famine threats in Nigeria, Yemen, South Sudan and Somalia, urges donors to fund their UN aid pledges in full and the Nigerian government to step up relief for its… Overview The humanitarian crisis in… Instruments of Pain… Read More »

Iran’s Bipolar Election

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Iranian voters have a real choice on 19 May between a president promising engagement with the West or one focused on the… Ali Vaez ICG At the same time, both leading candidates are clerical insiders who support the continuation of Iran’s nuclear deal. Who are the leading candidates in the 19 May election and what should we know about the top two? The May 2017 election is essentially a… Iran’s Bipolar… Read More »

Sri Lanka’s Transition to Nowhere

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Fragile hopes for lasting peace and cooperation across party and ethnic lines are imperilled. ICG To avoid leaders of the corrupt and violent former regime taking back control of the country, President Sirisena’s two-year-old “unity government” should put aside short-term calculations and… Executive Summary Two years into President Maithripala Sirisena’s term, Sri Lanka’s fragile hopes for lasting peace and… Sri Lanka’s Transition… Read More »

The Counter-productive Isolation of Proud and Hungry Sanaa

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Our Arabian Peninsula Senior Analyst April Longley Alley finds pride, resilience and an eagerness to end the conflict during field research and many conversations in Sanaa, Yemen’s capital. April Longley Alley ICG She concludes that isolating one side or making the famine and suffering worse will only prolong the war. SANAA, Yemen – One of the… The Counter-productive… Read More »

Venezuela: A Blueprint for Strife

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Two developments are propelling Venezuela faster along a route that has already led to dozens of deaths in the last few weeks: the first is an undemocratic proposal for a new constitution; the second is increasingly isolated Venezuela’s withdrawal from the Organisation of American States. Phil Gunson ICG CARACAS, Venezuela – Amid the tumult on the… One was the… Venezuela: A Blueprint… Read More »

Blocked Transition: Corruption and Regionalism in Tunisia

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Corruption and clientelism are undermining democratic transition in Tunisia, a unique success story after the 2011 Arab uprisings. ICG To put the country back on track, the government should launch a national economic dialogue including established business elites and emerging provincial business leaders. Executive Summary The political consensus in… Blocked Transition: Corruption… Read More »